Expected historical value

Science, innovation

Paul Graham wrote on Twitter:

"Let's invent a concept.

Expected historical value: how important something would be if it happened times the probability it will happen.

The expected historical value of current fusion projects is so enormous. I don't understand why people aren't talking more about them."

This concept, though similar to the original concept of expected value, puts a spin on it. Expected historical value is a concept to assess the future importance of things today.

What thing today could become "history" in the future? Sure, it may not get much attention now, but could it be recognized by the future as ground-breaking? What innovation, technology or idea, little discussed today, will be discussed a lot in the future?

There's a personal life spin on this as well: What experience or moment today could become a fond memory 50 years from now? It may not be the moments you'd expect (like a fancy trip) but an ordinary moment (like going for a midnight swim).

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